Our Services
Currency Risk | Yield Curves | Macro Outlook | Capacity Building | Software Support and Maintenance
We build yield curves for developing and emerging markets and advise central banks, IFIs, and corporates, and foster their capacity
Bespoke yield curves
- Yield curves tailor-made to the client, market, and instrument
We combine observable market data and macro-fundamental analysis to provide tools for theoretical fair-pricing of financial instruments in poorly developed local capital markets
IRS, CCY swap and forward curves, zero coupon and par curvesRisk-neutral and risk-compensating curves fitting client's risk-return preferences and mandatesPrimary and secondary market data cleaning and collection, liquidity premiums and risk adjustments
Model-based interpolations and extrapolation combining market data with macroeconomic and financial sector intelligenceFull documentation for regulatory purposes
Special focus on data-poor, emerging and frontier market economies
Processes audited to ISAE 3402 standard - See more:
EBRD TCX
Exchange Rate Forecast and Risk Rating
- Macroeconomic outlooks
5-year horizon, unique coverage with focus on emerging and frontier markets
Forecasts based on combination of rigorous models and expert judgment, underpinned by our extensive experience in emerging markets
Concise and compact analytical texts explaining rationale for forecast and qualifying risksAd-hoc consultations and flexible topical analysis driven by client requests
- Model-based risk rating system
90+ emerging markets
Assessment of short-term and long-term investment risks
Regular updates to incorporate latest available dataSuitable for clients with LCY exposure who are in need of risk assessment and monitoring
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Macro Forecast Macro Risk
Tailored advice
- Monetary policyTransitions to inflation targeting and flexible exchange rate
Reforms of monetary policy operations
External communications and internal decision-making processes - See more:
National Bank of Ukraine Bank al Maghrib - Money market developmentAnalysis and assessment of current state, charting roadmaps for reforms and development
Development of benchmark yield curves
Islamic banking and related issues
Money Market Diagnostic Framework (in cooperation with Frontclear and EBRD) - See more:
Brunei MMDF - Evaluations of programs, economic reforms, and institutionsEvaluation of macroeconomic programs and instruments implemented by public institutions
Analysis of capacity-building programs and institutions
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European Commission - Fiscal policyBudgetary forecasting and model-based simulation of budgetary impact of structural reforms
Fiscal sustainability assessments
Operation and methodological development of fiscal surveillance systems - See more:
OECD
Capacity Building
- Macroeconomic modelingLatest concepts in building DSGE and empirical models
We train clients in developing and using sound structural models tailored to client’s needs
Our models are used world-wide for medium-term and short-term forecasts, monetary and fiscal policy analysis, macro-prudential analysis, and stress-testing - See more:
National Bank of Serbia SAMA - Monetary policy operationsLiquidity forecasting, monetary operations design
Conventional and Islamic operations - See more:
Brunei - Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS)Designed to support decision-making processes within central banks
Bespoke models tailored to fit key features of local economy and central bank’s needs
Hands-on approach, working side-by-side with client’s staff to ensure they obtain ownership of models and tools - See more:
Bank al Maghrib National Bank of Ukraine - Monetary policy communicationWriting external and internal reports on monetary policy
Communications strategy and tactics
Designing cycle of monetary policy communication events - See more:
National Bank of Georgia
Software Support and Maintenance
- Supporting the functioning yield curve models
Bug fixing
Software upgradesSoftware enhancements
Development consultancy - Supporting the functioning of macroeconomic dashboards
Bug fixing
Software upgradesSoftware enhancements
Development consultancy - Maintaining Iris Software
Bug fixingSoftware upgradesCustomization and training - See more:
Sample Contract
In-depth analysis
We provide macroeconomic insight into markets in general and in particular into regions where our research needs to overcome the challenges of scarce data, political instability and structural imbalances.
